The 'Guaranteed Profit' IPO Myth Returns:
9.78 Million Investors Chasing 19,414 Allotments

A 0.2% Win Rate —
Most Retail Investors Are Just Along for the Ride

The maths is blunt: 9.785 million people chasing 19,414 winning lots means, on average, only one person in every 500 actually gets an allotment. Even if you win, one lot is just 500 shares — RMB 75,400 at the issue price. It's not a meaningful investment, just a lottery ticket.

In other words, the vast majority of those 9.78 million applicants will win nothing. Their real role is to build hype for the listing. The genuine winners are never the retail investors running alongside — they're the scalpers buying allotment rights off-market before the stock even lists.

"Average 2.76x pop" —
How Averages Mislead

Supporters of the "guaranteed profit" argument point to the numbers: A-share IPOs have averaged a 2.76x first-day rise this year, with STAR Market listings averaging 4.67x. At those multiples, Unitree would open around RMB 567 (a profit of roughly RMB 200,000 per lot), or even RMB 855 (roughly RMB 351,800 per lot).

But the "average" is itself the biggest trap. For every stock that pops, another one breaks its issue price — a 2.76x average is simply the blended result of winners and losers. The lot you actually win is never "the average": it's one specific stock, and it might be the one that pops — or the one that sinks below its offer price on day one.

Hong Kong already offered the counter-examples in the first half: Lingyi iTech fell 4.6% on debut, while Anker barely moved. "Guaranteed profit" was never a law — only survivorship bias. You remember the stocks that surged, not the ones that flopped.

Scalpers Paying 1.7x —
The Buyer Carries the Highest Risk

A scalper paying RMB 410 for allotment rights is betting that Unitree rises more than 172% on debut (from RMB 150.8 to above RMB 410) just to break even. For the retail buyer of that flipped allotment, the entry cost has already jumped from RMB 150.8 to RMB 410 — you're carrying a 1.7x premium before the stock even lists.

More importantly, "allotment flipping" sits in a grey zone: no formal contract, no regulatory protection. If the scalper disappears or the allotment turns out to be worthless, you have no recourse. Judging the risk by the "2.76x average" feels reassuring — but an average won't rescue the person who buys the wrong flipped allotment. If the debut rise undershoots expectations, a RMB 410 entry can lose heavily.

First-Day Pops Are Just a
Short-Term Supply-Demand Imbalance

A first-day pop doesn't mean the company suddenly became more valuable. It reflects a temporary mismatch at listing: a limited free float held by a small number of winners, met with concentrated speculative money. That premium narrows over time — historically, stocks that surge on debut tend to pull back 20–50% within a month.

So the real question isn't "will it rise on day one?" — it's "does the price you're paying leave you any margin of safety?" Applying at the issue price caps your downside at a first-day break. Paying a 1.7x premium for a flipped allotment opens up a much larger potential loss.

Value It Yourself —
Don't Rely on the "Guaranteed Profit" Belief

Whether a new share is worth buying should be decided by numbers, not market sentiment. A humanoid-robot company like Unitree has immature revenue and a rich valuation — a P/E ratio is meaningless, so you have to judge the pricing with a P/S (price-to-sales) ratio instead.

Use FinKit's IPO Valuation Calculator to input the revenue, issue price and share count from the prospectus, and it instantly computes the P/S ratio for comparison against peers. Once you know your own fair-value estimate, you're in a position to judge whether to buy a flipped allotment or walk away — instead of following the crowd just because scalpers are paying up.

Want to learn IPO valuation? → How to Value an IPO: The P/S Ratio Method